A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
